A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
