Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a capacity provided through up-to-date information. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: defensive missiles deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably delivered by Western nations. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from devastation and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to fill in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from Washington provoked deep reactions, debate and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame specific actors of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington operates on a assumption familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is impossible to force Russia to abandon the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.
